VanEck: Bitcoin Miner "Capitulation" May Signal Market Bottom Is Near

According to VanEck, one of the world's leading asset management firms, the recent wave of Bitcoin miner capitulation may be sending a positive signal for BTC price over the medium and long term.

In a report published earlier this week, VanEck's crypto research team — led by Matt Sigel — Head of Digital Assets Research — and Patrick Bush, Senior Investment Analyst — noted that prolonged declines in Bitcoin's hashrate have historically served as a contrarian bullish signal.

Declining Hashrate — A Familiar Signal Before Recoveries

Specifically, Bitcoin's network hashrate dropped approximately 4% in the month leading up to December 15, marking the sharpest decline since April 2024. VanEck noted this typically occurs when less efficient miners are forced to shut down operations as costs exceed revenues.

VanEck's data shows that since 2014:

• When the hashrate declined over the prior 30 days, BTC returns over the following 90 days were positive in 65% of cases — higher than the 54% rate seen when hashrate was rising.
• Over a 180-day window, negative hashrate periods were associated with positive BTC returns in 77% of cases, with average gains reaching as high as 72% — far outpacing periods of rising hashrate.

"When hashrate declines persist, Bitcoin's forward returns tend to be higher both in frequency and magnitude," VanEck's analysts concluded.

Heavy Pressure Weighing on Bitcoin Miners

With Bitcoin's price still under correction pressure, many miners are facing severe financial stress. According to CoinGecko, BTC is currently trading around $88,400, down nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6.

VanEck pointed out that the breakeven electricity cost for the Bitmain S19 XP (2022-generation) — one of the most widely used mining rigs — has fallen nearly 36%, from $0.12/kWh in December 2024 to just $0.077/kWh by mid-December. This reflects how harsh the current mining environment has become, forcing many miners out of the market.

China Shutting Down Miners, AI Competing for Power

The primary driver behind the hashrate decline, according to VanEck, is the recent shutdown of approximately 1.3 gigawatts of Bitcoin mining capacity in China. Notably, much of that power is expected to be redirected toward the growing energy demands of AI data centers.

VanEck estimates this trend could eliminate up to 10% of total global Bitcoin hashrate in the near term, adding short-term pressure while also helping to "clean up" the network.

Many Countries Still Quietly Backing Bitcoin Mining

While some regions are pulling back, VanEck noted that as many as 13 countries currently support or directly participate in Bitcoin mining. The list includes Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and most recently Japan.

According to the analysts, state-level participation signals that Bitcoin mining is still viewed as strategic infrastructure — especially as competition over energy, data, and technological sovereignty intensifies.

Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Opportunity?

History shows that miner capitulation phases tend to coincide with cycle price bottoms, as sell pressure from miners subsides and the network becomes more efficient.

"If history repeats itself, the current pressure on miners may well be the setup for Bitcoin's next recovery cycle," VanEck concluded.