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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
12/19/2025

Fidelity Forecasts Bitcoin Could Bottom at $65,000 in 2026, Bull Cycle Nearing Its End

Fidelity's Head of Global Macro Research, Jurrien Timmer, believes Bitcoin may have already ended its traditional four-year bull cycle after setting a new all-time high in October. In his view, both in terms of price and timing, that peak most likely marks the end of the current halving cycle. In a post on X, Timmer noted that Bitcoin typically goes through "crypto winter" periods lasting roughly one year. As a result, 2026 could become a market "rest year."

Fidelity Forecasts Bitcoin Could Bottom at $65,000 in 2026, Bull Cycle Nearing Its End

Fidelity's Head of Global Macro Research, Jurrien Timmer, believes Bitcoin may have already ended its traditional four-year bull cycle after setting a new all-time high in October. In his view, both in terms of price and timing, that peak most likely marks the end of the current halving cycle.

In a post on X, Timmer noted that Bitcoin typically goes through "crypto winter" periods lasting roughly one year. As a result, 2026 could become a market "rest year", with key support sitting in the $65,000 – $75,000 range. That said, he stressed that he remains a "secular bull" — a long-term optimist on Bitcoin.

Fidelity's cautious stance stands in contrast to many other industry experts. Some analysts argue that the rise of regulated investment products — particularly spot Bitcoin ETFs — combined with an increasingly clear regulatory environment in the U.S., could help extend the bull cycle into 2026.

Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, believes the market is recovering from the large-scale liquidation event earlier in October and that Bitcoin could very well reach new price highs in 2026 as investor sentiment improves and fundamentals continue to develop.

On the policy front, legal experts also expect 2026 to be a pivotal year for crypto regulation in the U.S., particularly around the rollout of stablecoin legislation and the integration of digital assets into traditional payment systems — developments that could pave the way for larger institutional capital flows into the market.

In the near term, however, investor sentiment is weakening as Bitcoin at one point dipped below the $85,000 mark. Data from Santiment shows bearish commentary dominating social media, while "smart money" traders on Nansen are shorting Bitcoin while betting on Ether's upside.

Overall, the crypto market is caught in a tug-of-war between a positive long-term outlook and short-term correction risk, with 2026 seen as the defining moment to determine whether Bitcoin has truly entered a new cycle.