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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
12/15/2025

Bitcoin Nears End of Extreme Low-Volatility Phase as $50,000 Price Target Re-Emerges

After days of sideways trading around the $90,000 level, Bitcoin is entering what traders call an "extreme low-volatility" phase — a state that typically signals a major breakout is imminent, in either direction. Volatility Compressed, Market Awaits Breakout Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC price action was nearly flat throughout the weekend, with strong overhead resistance turning back every recovery attempt. The chart shows Bitcoin

Bitcoin Nears End of Extreme Low-Volatility Phase as $50,000 Price Target Re-Emerges

After days of sideways trading around the $90,000 level, Bitcoin is entering what traders call an "extreme low-volatility" phase — a state that typically signals a major breakout is imminent, in either direction.

Volatility Compressed, Market Awaits Breakout

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC price action was nearly flat throughout the weekend, with strong overhead resistance turning back every recovery attempt.

The chart shows Bitcoin trapped in a tight range — but that compression is precisely what's building expectations for a significant price move in the near term.

Technical analyst Aksel Kibar noted on X:

"Extreme low-volatility setup. This typically means a directional move is coming."

According to Kibar, Bitcoin is now facing two clear scenarios.

Bullish Case: Break Above $94,600, Eyes on $100,000

If Bitcoin successfully clears the $94,600 level, price could quickly retest $100,000, which sits at the lower edge of a broader expanding pattern on higher timeframes.

However, this scenario requires buying pressure to return in force — something that has yet to be confirmed.

Bearish Case: Bear Flag Pattern Triggers

On the downside, if the current structure continues to play out as a bear flag on the daily chart, Bitcoin could see a deeper corrective leg.

Aksel Kibar identified the $73,700 – $76,500 zone as a potential medium-term bottom where the market would need to find clearer reversal signals.

Trader Crypto Tony also noted that the current short-term trading range sits between $89,800 – $90,600, advising investors to act only on a confirmed break:

"Wait for the breakout, then act."

CryptoQuant Warning: Bear Market May Have Already Begun

Notably, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant struck a more bearish tone, suggesting Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market.

According to analyst Pelin Ay, the simple moving averages (SMAs) are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance, while relief rallies are playing out on low volume — a sign of weakening buy-side demand.

"Price rallies are not being confirmed by volume. Meanwhile, selling pressure on red candles is noticeably stronger."

She argues Bitcoin is currently in a technical bounce within a larger downtrend.

$50,000 Target Back on the Table

Based on the current market structure, CryptoQuant does not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin entering a deeper decline, with a potential target back at $50,000 before any meaningful new growth cycle can form.

While Ethereum has shown stronger recovery from long-term lows, CryptoQuant says this alone is not enough to confirm a market-wide reversal.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a decisive inflection point:

  • Volatility compressed to an extreme
  • Trend direction still unclear
  • Downside risk and breakout potential coexist

In this environment, traders are advised to manage risk tightly and wait patiently for confirmation signals rather than trying to front-run the market's next move.