Bitcoin Gearing Up for a Relief Bounce? Signals Point to Stabilization
After more than a month of heavy volatility and a massive leveraged liquidation cascade, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization. Analysts believe the market may be setting up for a short-term recovery — known as a relief bounce — as multiple on-chain indicators and derivatives market data suggest selling pressure has weakened. Signs of a "local bottom" forming? In their latest report, the Bitfinex analyst team noted that a combination of: * Extreme deleveraging
After more than a month of heavy volatility and a massive leveraged liquidation cascade, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization. Analysts believe the market may be setting up for a short-term recovery — also known as a relief bounce — as multiple on-chain indicators and derivatives market data suggest selling pressure has weakened.
Signs of a "Local Bottom" Forming?
In their latest report, the Bitfinex analyst team noted that a combination of:
- Extreme deleveraging
- Short-term holder capitulation
- Seller exhaustion signals
is creating "a favorable environment for Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially bounce in the near term."
Just before the report was published, Bitcoin surged nearly 8% in a single day, pushing close to the $94,000 level before pulling back slightly. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $91,000, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The Market Is Now Operating on a "Cleaner Leverage Base"
Bitfinex noted that the market has shed most of its high-risk leverage following the $19 billion liquidation event on October 10 — an event many analysts have called "the largest leverage flush in Bitcoin's history."
That event dragged Bitcoin's price down to the $82,000 zone on November 21, triggering a wave of forced exits among short-term leveraged traders.
However, the very act of flushing out that leverage has left the market:
- less fragile,
- at lower risk of a cascading liquidation event,
- and on firmer footing for a new accumulation phase.
Bitfinex views this as the key factor that could allow Bitcoin to stabilize once again.
Year-End Season: Is Bitcoin Defying Historical Patterns?
While December is historically a quiet month for Bitcoin — averaging just 4.69% gains since 2013 — 2024 is not following the seasonal script.
November — traditionally Bitcoin's strongest month, with an average return of 41% — closed down 17.67%, breaking the conventional seasonal pattern.
Some analysts argue the four-year cycle no longer carries the same weight it once did. User PlanC wrote on X:
"Bitcoin's cycle this year is NOT like any previous cycle."
Meanwhile, analyst Quinten Francois noted:
"Bitcoin is currently closer to a bottom than a top."
Even BitMine Chairman Tom Lee continues to believe Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 mark before the year is out.